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Friday, March 28, 2014

Once upon a time: The refuted roots of organic farming

Can you tell the difference between these two molecules of urea?
Image credit
The urea on the left can be isolated from cattle urine (urea is the principal nitrogenous waste product of amphibians and mammals). The urea on the right can be produced via the Wohler process. They are, of course, exactly the same molecule. Subscribers to organic farming methods, however, believe that the urea on the left is an acceptable nitrogen source, while the urea on the right is not.

Once upon a time, many years ago, people who considered such things believed that there were substances that could only be synthesized by living organisms. This dichotomy between living (organic) and non-living (inorganic) is the basis of today’s chemistry sub disciplines. It was understood that life arose from and involved “life forces” that were apart from the purely physical and chemical realm. In other words, all "living organisms are fundamentally different from non-living entities because they contain some non-physical element or are governed by different principles than are inanimate things".1 This is the philosophy of “vitalism.”

Friedrich Wohler (1800-1882) photo credit
In 1828 Friedrich Wohler accidentally made urea in the laboratory. This marked the breaking of the barrier between “organic” and “inorganic” compounds (he told his teacher that he had made “urea without requiring a kidney of an animal, either man or dog.”). He had refuted a core tenant of vitalism. Wohler wrote that he had witnessed “the great tragedy of science, the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.” Vitalism was fiercely debated for the next 75 years before it was replaced by our modern understanding of chemistry and biology. Yet this belief system, perhaps unknowingly, is held by many today.

Rudolf Steiner (1861-1925) Photo credit
The man most responsible for the perpetuation of this discredited belief is Rudolf Steiner (1861-1925). Steiner taught his followers in the early 1920s that urea synthesized by the Wohler process was “dead.” Such synthetic fertilizers did not possess critical “vital” forces, thus yielding “dead’ food. Steiner recommended using only animal manures and crop rotation to fertilize fields. He taught his followers that the “new” food from synthetic fertilizers was spiritually and physically deficient and resulted in poor health. From Steiner’s teachings in the early 1920s arose the modern organic farming movement.

1. Bechtel,W. and R.C. Rirchardson. (1998). Vitalism. In E. Craig (Ed.), RoutledgeEncyclopedia of Philosophy. London: Routledge. Vitalism. Accessed March 28, 2014

Monday, March 24, 2014

As Simple As Possible, But No Simpler

[This is from an article in the December 2013 issue of CowManagement]
Albert Einstein is frequently credited with saying that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” While the composer Roger Sessions appears to be the actual author of this quote, it accurately captures the sentiment of a statement that Einstein did make describing the role of true scientists as they state hypotheses for testing.

“It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.”
(Photo credit links Einstein and Sessions)
Peter Ballerstedt, Barenbrug USA’s Forage Product Manager, believes that the failure to observe this advice has produced the epidemic of chronic disease facing America today and has limited the use of grass in rations for today’s high-producing dairy cows. “We’ve misunderstood the role of carbohydrates in both cases,” Ballerstedt explains. If that’s hard to follow, perhaps some of Ballerstedt’s experiences will make it clearer.

“Six years ago at Christmas, I took a family portrait. When I looked at myself in that picture, I didn’t like what I saw.” He was “an obese, prediabetic, balding 51 year-old.” Today, he says, “I’m just balding.” What changed? His diet. Today he eats a diet that is high in fat (primarily from animal products) and low in carbohydrate. “The official dietary policy and advice is based upon two overly-simplistic and unfounded hypotheses,” he says.

Replacing dietary fat

First, that the heart-healthy diet is one that is low in fat, low in cholesterol, with restricted consumption of full-fat dairy and other animal products. “Since the arterial plaques of atherosclerosis contained cholesterol, it was speculated that the solution was to limit dietary cholesterol and saturated fat intake,” Ballerstedt adds.

“Second, that since fat contains almost twice as many calories per gram than carbohydrate, replacing dietary fat with carbohydrate would prevent obesity,” he continues. Despite the fact that dietary carbohydrate was understood to be “uniquely fattening” in the human diet, Americans were directed to consume diets where the majority of their calories would be supplied by carbohydrates. “A calorie is a calorie, we were told, despite the fact  that isocaloric amounts of fat, carbohydrates and protein produce different hormonal responses.”

Both these hypotheses were adopted despite the lack of proof and the presence of conflicting evidence. Thus the products of forage agriculture, red meat and full-fat dairy products, were falsely accused of promoting obesity and cardio-vascular disease. “Now that I understand these erroneous oversimplifications, I want folks in animal agriculture, especially ruminant agriculture, to become familiar with the information I’ve learned over the past six years.” Ballerstedt concludes by saying, “We are not what we eat. We are what our body does with what we eat!”

So, what’s this got to do with the role of grass in today’s dairy rations? Unjustified oversimplifications have unfairly penalized cool season grasses. First, there’s the current understanding of forage quality. “Our concept of forage quality has been, basically, that lower neutral detergent fiber (NDF) means higher quality.” This was an unjustified over-simplification.

Cool season grasses

The fact that cool season grasses have higher NDF was assumed to mean that they were lower quality than alfalfa. But NDF readings cannot be compared between grasses, legumes and corn silage. “Despite this, relative feed value (RFV) and relative feed quality (RFQ) values have been used to compare different forage species,” according to Ballerstedt. “The key fact is that the digestibility of cool season grass NDF is higher than NDF from alfalfa or corn.”
Italian ryegrass and alfalfa
Another oversimplification was relying on a single laboratory parameter to predict animal performance from forage samples. Work conducted by dairy scientist, David Combs and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin, has produced an improved assay that incorporates the rate of fiber digestion, the rate of passage and the total fiber digestibility. This new assessment of forage quality, called total tract neutral detergent fiber digestibility (TTNDFD), allows comparisons across forage species and can be used to balance rations.

Selection criteria in grass

Not only can TTNDFD be used to balance rations, it can be used as a selection criteria in developing new grass varieties. “All grasses are not created equal!” Ballerstedt states. “Barenbrug has developed varieties that have the highest NDFD and TTNDFD of their species.” Up to ten percentage point differences between grass species and varieties within a species cut at the same growth stage have been documented. “Remember, a two percentage point increase in TTNDFD can produce an additional pound of milk per day from an already high-producing cow! Barenbrug’s NutriFiber brand assures the farmer of the greatest genetic potential for the highest NDFD and TTNDFD.”
Jersey Cows. They are NOT what they eat!
Ballerstedt finds it ironic that his personal and professional interest should be so tied to carbohydrates. “In humans, there’s no such thing as an essential carbohydrate. Dairy cows, on the other hand, must have two types of carbohydrate: non-fiber carbohydrate (NFC), starches and sugars, to support high levels of milk production; and digestible NDF to promote rumen health, butterfat production and animal well-being.”

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Cara Mendapatkan Bitcoin Dengan Script Auto Bot

Hari ini saya akan berbagi script auto bot untuk mendapatkan bitcoin secara gratis dan tentunya secara otomatis. Semenjak harga bitcoin yang tinggi semua orang ingin mendapatkan bitcoin secara cuma-cuma dan tentunya dengan cara yang gampang dan mudah, berikut caranya silakan anda ikuti.

  1. Anda harus mempunyai dompet bitcoin, kalau belum punya silahkan ke sini
  2. Kunjungi situs berikut ini http://goo.gl/5SRjOF
  3. Daftar disitus freebitco.in dengan menggunakan alamat wallet/dompet bitcoin anda yang telah anda buat tadi.
  4. Kalau sudah berhasil mendaftar anda harus ikuti langkah berikut ini, caranya cuku mudah dan gampang banget, anda cuma mngecopy-paste script di bawah ini pada saat anda berada pada situs freebitco.in.
Untuk peramban/browser Mozilla Firefox, caranya klik kanan dimana saja pada saat anda berda pada situs tersebut dan klik inspect element, setelah itu klik pada console lalu paste kode dibawah ini dan tekan enter.
var  minValue=1E-8,maxLoss=10000000000000,aimedProfit=10,maxOps=500000000000000,endResult=0,ops=0,bet=function(a,b,c){$.get("?op=double_your_btc&m="+(b?"lo":"hi")+"&stake="+a+"&multiplier=2&jackpot=0",function(d){d=d.split(":");$("#balance").html(d[3]);c(a,b,"w"===d[1])})},martingale=function(a,b,c){c||a>=maxLoss&&0!==maxLoss?(b=!b,newValue=minValue):newValue=2*a;endResult=c?endResult+a:endResult-a;console.log((c?"+":"-")+a);ops++;(ops<maxOps||0===maxOps)&&(endResult<aimedProfit||0===aimedProfit)?bet(newValue,b,martingale):
(console.log("Martingale finished in "+ops+" operations!"),console.log("Result: "+endResult))};martingale(minValue,!1,!1);

Untuk peramban/browser Google Crome tekan tombol kombinasi berikut ini CTRL+Shift+J, lalu klik pada Console lalu paste kode dibawah ini dan tekan Enter.
var  minValue=1E-8,maxLoss=10000000000000,aimedProfit=10,maxOps=500000000000000,endResult=0,ops=0,bet=function(a,b,c){$.get("?op=double_your_btc&m="+(b?"lo":"hi")+"&stake="+a+"&multiplier=2&jackpot=0",function(d){d=d.split(":");$("#balance").html(d[3]);c(a,b,"w"===d[1])})},martingale=function(a,b,c){c||a>=maxLoss&&0!==maxLoss?(b=!b,newValue=minValue):newValue=2*a;endResult=c?endResult+a:endResult-a;console.log((c?"+":"-")+a);ops++;(ops<maxOps||0===maxOps)&&(endResult<aimedProfit||0===aimedProfit)?bet(newValue,b,martingale):
(console.log("Martingale finished in "+ops+" operations!"),console.log("Result: "+endResult))};martingale(minValue,!1,!1);

Selamat anda berhasil menggunakan script auto bot untuk mendapatkan bitcoin gratis dengan mudah.

Cara Mining / Menambang Bitcoin Dengan CPU Windows 7

Nambang Bitcoin - Malam ini saya akan menulis tentang mining atau menambang bitcoin dengan menggunakan cpu windows 7, menggunakan cara ini memang kecil pendapatan dari bitcoin tapi perlu anda ketahui, ini cara berjalan sendiri dan otomatis bitcoin -bitcoin akan terkumpul sendiri. Berikut caranya menambang bitcoin dengan CPU.
bitcoin miner,bitcoin,nambang bitcoin,worker bitcoin,bitcoin mining
  1. Buka alamat 50btc.com
  2. Daftar dan buat worker (penambang bitcoin)
  3. Download softwarenya di sini http://ufasoft.com/files/ufasoft_coin_0.37.exe dan download juga ini http://ufasoft.com/coin/
  4. Setelah selesai download install dan setelah selesai jangan di buka, di tutup saja.
  5. Buatlah file *.bat, Caranya: Buka Notepad lalu copy dan paste kode berikut ini:
Untuk Windows 32bit:
 "%ProgramFiles%\Ufasoft\Coin\coin-miner.exe"-u you@email.com -o http://pool.50btc.com:8332
Note: Ganti "you@email.com" dengan email yang anda daftarkan tadi, dan " %ProgramFiles%\Ufasoft\Coin\coin-miner.exe" direktori penginstalan tadi.

Untuk WIndows 64bit:
"%ProgramFIles(x86)%\Ufasoft\Coin\bitcoin-miner-64.exe" -u you@email.com -o http://pool.50btc.com:8332
Note: Seperti windows 32bit di atas.

 6. Simpan dengan nama "50btccpu.bat", tidak pakai tanda petik(").
 7. Jalankan file *.bat.
 8. Selesai.

Happy Mining, dan selamat berburu bitcoin sobat IDR Bitcoin, semoga menjadi manusia yang sukses selalu,amin. Salam Bitcoin Indonesia.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Cara Mining Menggunakan Hardware GPU / VGA Card

Nambang Bitcoin - Mining adalah suatu cara untuk menambang suatu yang ingin ia tambang, kali ini adalah mining bitcoin menggunakan hardware GPU / VGA Card, menggali sesuatu yang ingin anda dapatkan adalah suatu tantangan yang seru buat kita sendiri, berikut caranya menmabang bitcoin menggunakan vga card.
bitcoin miner,mining bitcoin,nambang bitcoin
  1. Buka situs ini btcguild.com dan mendaftar di situs tersebut.
  2. Download cgminer V3.1.1 disini.
  3. Lalu install file yang telah anda downlad tadi ke drive C.
  4. Supaya memudahkan menggunakannya letakkan cgminer.exe ke desktop dengan membuatkan shortcut.
  5. Buka cgminer.exe dari shortcut desktop yang anda buat tadi, lalu isikan data sesuai yang anda isikan saat mendaftar di btcguild.com tadi.
    cgminer,mining,bitcoin mining,miner bitcoin
    Contoh gambar .1 setelah anda buka cgminer.exe
    Url: stratum.btcguild.com:3333, user: worker(pekerja penambang), password: apa saja(boleh kosong)
  6. Selesai, hasilnya Mining Menggunakan hardware gpu / vga card jika berhasil akan seperti di bawah ini.
    bitcoin,miner bitcoin,bitcoin mining,cgminer
    Contoh gambar .2 hasil mining dari gpu / vga card.
    Begitulah cara mining / menambang bitcoin menggunakan gpu atau vga card, cukup mudah dan simpel bukan? Selamat bermining ria sobat. salam Bitcoin Indonesia.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Policy Follies

My experience has made me skeptical. I believe that’s a requirement for scientists and “herd quitters.” After all, the opposite of skeptical is gullible.

When sustainability comes up, I’m usually left wondering who’s defined the criteria. It frequently seems that profitability isn’t part of these discussions, for example. But there’s no sustainability without profit. After all, there are easier ways than farming to not make money!

A definition I am most comfortable with describes sustainability as “ … meet[ing] the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (Brundtland Report, October 1987, World Commission on Environment and Development). Human nutrition must be considered one of the present needs, but the deplorable state of our conventional wisdom regarding a “healthy diet” strongly suggests it hasn’t been accurately considered.

As I’ve learned the sordid history of how we’ve gotten into the current mess regarding diet, health and human nutrition, I’ve been struck by similarities with other current controversies, like Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (aka “Global Warming” or “Climate Change”). Some folks are far more certain of their positions than the data warrant, it seems to me. Talk of “consensus” (a concept of little relevance to science), and crises that demand immediate action despite adequate understanding of the crises, its causes, or the impact of the proposed actions are common features.

So imagine my reaction when I came across this story: ObamaAdministration to Insert Global Warming Activism into Dietary GuidelinesMandated by Congress. Apparently, last week at a closed-door meeting, environmental activists within the U.S. government met to plan changes to the nation’s dietary guidelines to promote foods that they believe have “a smaller carbon footprint.” The good news may be that the dietary guidelines themselves are becoming increasingly discredited, so either no one will listen, or it will take down the anti-carbon activists by association. One can only hope.

For a good introduction to how we got the dietary guidelines, I recommend Denise Minger's book, Death by Food Pyramid: How Shoddy Science, Sketchy Politics andShady Special Interests Have Ruined Our Health. If you’d like to read a critique of the latest edition of the dietary guidelines, read my friend Adele Hite’s journal article In the face ofcontradictory evidence: report of the Dietary Guidelines for AmericansCommittee (her blog is well worth reading, too). If you’d like to learn about issues related to climate change, I recommend Anthony Watt’s blog.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

How Michigan Threw the Big Ten Championship Game

It's really too bad Michigan had to throw the Big Ten Championship Game, it should have been a great game. Unfortunately, the fix was in, so the Wolverines deliberately turned in another horrible effort. If Michigan had been allowed to give 100 percent in this game, Michigan State still might have won, because they have a fine team, but they wouldn't have won 69-55, I can guarantee that. It would have been a close, hard-fought struggle like the first two meetings between these two teams.

There are several things to look for when a game is fixed, and this one had most of them in spades. Leaving the opponent wide open for easy baskets is one of the telltale signs, along with failure to hustle after rebounds and loose balls, deliberate turnovers and uncharacteristically poor shot selection. Another thing to watch for is when players suddenly find they're unable to make a layup, and when the team shooting percentage is drastically lower than usual.

Michigan is one of the leaders in the nation in shooting percentage, consistently making 40 to 60 percent from the field. Coming into this game, they were ranked 21st in the nation with an average of 48.1 percent despite deliberately missing more than their share of baskets in games they were required to throw. Michigan State was 31st at 47.4. In their first two meetings this season, despite losing both games, MSU outshot Michigan from the field 46-45 percent, and 54-50 percent. Both teams were close to their season averages,  but not in this game.

While MSU was right around its usual percentage at 50.9 percent, Michigan shot an abysmal 30.9 percent. From 3 -point range, Michigan was even worse at 28.6 percent, and MSU was way below average at 11.8 percent. Imagine what the score would have been if Michigan State had made its usual 40 percent. That would have meant they made seven 3-pointers instead of two, so the final score would have been 84-55. Perhaps that would have raised too many eyebrows, though. So Michigan State deliberately missed a bunch of 3-pointers to keep the game closer.

Funny how Michigan shot so poorly from the field, considering they were 15 of 16 from the free-throw line for 93.8 percent. Another indication this game was not on the level.

Despite outrebounding MSU 31-28 in their first game this season, Michigan was obliterated on the boards in this game, 38-22. That indicates deliberate failure to hustle after rebounds. Also, Michigan committed only 2 turnovers in the second game and made 9 in this game -- another highly suspicious statistic.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014


前幾天受到TGC的邀請去到資策會那邊與部落客前輩銀狐阿涼開了一個小型的座談會,原本還有Q龍,可是他在日本被妹子耽誤了時程,體力不支,無法參加。(咦?) 其實我一開始對於兩個小時的開放性座談會有點擔心,畢竟主題有點開放,針對遊戲產業、市場趨勢、手機遊戲等主題都有很多開放性的問題,範圍很廣,似乎有些超越能夠應付的範圍。不過總體而言,算是不錯,有說有笑。因為我自己也在講,我沒能記住其他講者說甚麼,如果有人有做筆記,歡迎提供給我。
Some Keynotes of my point of view:

1. 從阿涼的財報分析看台灣遊戲產業

台灣上市櫃公司走入手機時代,大部份依然在做經驗複製。client->web->mobile,商業模式依舊不變,只是Revenue Stream多了一條。營收與成本都從從舊的項目轉到Mobile。金流場商如智冠的營收提昇并非代表台灣遊戲產業獲得突破性的發展,如果是的話每家公司應該都要大幅提昇才是,畢竟Payment認列的營收是代收,實際上毛利低。但不可至否的是這可能代表非上市櫃的遊戲公司已經正在發展。

2. 手機遊戲是否只剩F2P?2014是手遊年,哪些產品會紅?有人說是ARPG...未來的市場趨勢是什麼?

全世界來說F2P與Premium model手遊佔的營收佔比大幅拉開,2013年僅7%的手遊營手來自F2P,2012年還有十幾%,但是營收是持平的,意謂著2013年F2P大幅上昇導致相對比例拉開。



遊戲類型並沒有辦法主導市場趨勢。市場看得永遠是產品本質,而你的Core game play好不好玩才是重點。


3. 關於手機遊戲行銷的想法?是否只能跟著大環境制定的規則走,而只能follow產業鏈中握有優勢者呢?是否代表病毒行銷就不存在呢?獨立開發者該如何生存?另外,關於行銷方面如何設定TA與如果檢視分析,除了性別、年齡等等要怎麼去找到這些用戶?找到用戶之後又該怎麼分析他的價值?

在座有玩Flappy Bird的舉手?(約有一半)即使是俱有優勢者也不可能阻止Word of mouth的發生啊!


Well,綜合前面提到的關於行銷、TA、數據分析所有問題,我想要用ARM Model的邏輯來解釋:最終你需要証明的是你的User lifetime value > User acquisition cost。所以你需要去檢視每個環節,像是TA那也只是其中一小部分。




「H Game」有人回答。






4. 關於寫部落格的起心動念...





Tuesday, March 11, 2014

[遊戲產業][產業趨勢]2014行動暨遊戲產業市場概況 Update2


這份報告也恰好是2012年與2013年的比較,很適合加入我要做得這一系列分析,主要想要分享這篇報告也有一些自己工作上小小的感概,舉例來說去年底很多廠商說要來做手遊平台,但實際上手遊的散播平台是不Work的,於是大家看到CPI廣告的需求,很多人也一股腦的加入,甚至直接忽略媒體這塊而直接做獎勵示廣告(Incentivized Ads、Offer Walls),短期內的市場也許乍看之下是往這個方向走,但實際上這不是長遠之道。